The Other CW

Well, that was unexpected. But maybe it shouldn't have been.

It's remarkable how often the conventional wisdom turns out to be incorrect. The Common Man has noticed, more often than not in recent years, if everyone believes one thing, it is a safe bet to go the other way. This is especially true today, in the wake of the New Hampshire primary yesterday.

Pundits everywhere had predicted Barak Obama would win the state in a walk, given his recent surge in the polls and the momentum he generated from his Iowa victory. Just yesterday on Bill O'Reilly's Radio Factor, the aforementioned host and his guest, former Presidential candidate and constant xenophobe Pat Buchanan, were united in their prediction that (roughly quoting Buchanan here) "Independents will determine this primary, and two-thirds of them will vote for Obama." They speculated that this would spell trouble for John McCain, who was counting on the independent vote to carry the state for the second time in the last three presidential seasons. Most of what The Common Man had read and heard over the past few days had expressed a similar sentiment, that Obama was unstoppable and McCain was in trouble. Given how many people were writing Clinton off for dead (especially because she *gasp* showed emotion), and were worried about McCain, The Common Man should have absolutely expected their triumphs yesterday.

That said, it's not like Clinton's victory could be called in any way decisive. Clinton's rousing 39 percent of the vote garnered her 9 delegates. Obama's 37 percent netted him, wait for it, 9 delegates. Given that the conventional wisdom today is that Clinton "won", it's fitting that both candidates walk away essentially tied. At least McCain can claim 3 more delegates than Romney, his closest challenger in New Hampshire.

Anyway, the big to-dos in Iowa and New Hampshire are over now, and we can get on to the rest of the country. Next up is Michigan, a swing state in the general election, which could actually tell us something about the electability of the field. Romney, following two defeats, looks poised to win (on what is essentially home turf for him) and Edwards needs a strong finish if he's going to stick around until the primaries swing south toward the end of the month. Of course, this sounds too much to The Common Man like conventional wisdom, so who knows?

In other news, The Common Man's Common Knee is going to need reconstructive surgery. In a phone conversation this morning, The Common Man's doctor informed him that has a fully torn ACL, possible cartilage damage, and a partially torn LCL. Not fun.